Animal Crossing: New Horizons–Here's The Statistical Odds Of Redd Giving You Fake Art

We already knew that Jolly Redd, the shady art dealer in Animal Crossing: New Horizons, is an unscrupulous fellow. He shows up on a rickety boat, invites you into a dimly lit room, and sells artwork that is often fake and sometimes even haunted. But new details from datamining appears to show the odds of getting legit art pieces from Redd. You best be careful, as Redd isn’t playing by very fair odds. In fact, once you see the numbers, you may want to reconsider taking your chances at all.

According to Twitter user Ninji, the four art pieces have a rolling chance of the real-to-fake distribution. There’s a 50% chance that only one will be real, and a 30% chance that you’ll have two real and fakes. Your best odds of getting a good distribution is 10%, which gives you three real and only one fake. But that chance is matched by having all four fake and no real art at all. That means Redd could give you absolutely no chance of choosing a real piece, but no counter-balance of having no chance for a fake.

The thread shares some other details as well. If a spot is marked for real art, 20% of the time the game will guarantee it’s a piece you haven’t already donated to the museum. That helps raise the odds slightly of getting new pieces to help you fill Blathers’ collection. It also details how the spots are devoted to different types of artwork. The art appears four spots (designated 1, 2, 3, and 4 in the datamine). Spots 1 and 2 can have paintings, while 3 and 4 can have paintings or sculptures. Spots 2 and 3 will always be small, while 1 and 4 can be any size.

Like most datamined info, this hasn’t been confirmed by any official source. But Ninji successfully predicted the return of Redd and outlined how visitor schedules like Redd’s work, so he has a good track record.

That all explains how Redd’s artwork is distributed, but of course you still need to check the pieces before you buy to make sure they’re legit. You can check out our Redd’s artwork guide for details on all of the tells for the fake art pieces, to make sure you don’t get taken advantage of. And on the subject of the museum, Blathers is currently hosting a special limited-time stamp event in celebration of International Museum Day. Plus cicadas are coming–in the game, as well as to your back yard, probably.

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